LINKS PARA [1ªS ]BOLHAS [ou: NÃO CULPE O CAPITALISMO, CULPE O REI]

ECONOMIA AUSTRÍACA e bolhas [artigo do Mises Daily] http://mises.org/daily/4341

JOHN LAW E A BOLHA [desenho animado] http://blog.mises.org/11749/paper-money-and-the-mississippi-bubble/

INTRODUÇÃO AO LIVRO " Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money" lapidar: "There is no real increase in the demand for higher order goods and instead of capital flowing into what the unfettered market would dictate — it flows into malinvestment." http://mises.org/daily/3356

LIVRO EM PDF: Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Supply of Money 

O LIVRO EXPÕE trÊs grandes cises: a Crise da Tulipas, na Holanda [que é esquecida por muitos analistas de bolhas por, supostamente, ser apenas uma flutuação no mercado, ou seja, não foi criada por inflação bancária mas por insensatez dos especuladores, pois a sazonalidade das Tulipas, bem como a raridade e baixa taxa de cultivo das mais raras, fez com que o "Mercado de Futuros" entrasse numa bolha especulativa]; a crise da Companhia do Mississipi [que pretendia ganhar mundos e fundos na exploração da Louisianna, território francês na América. Para tanto, resolveu vender "shares" da Companhia no Mercado. Com o beneplácito do sucessor - endividado até a alma, portanto - de Luís XIV. Ver desenho animado acima] e a "South Sea Bubble", nada mais que o equivalente britânico da farra francesa de vender "shares" de Companhias maravilhosas que nada tinham em seus "assets", também sob os olhos [vendados, diga-se; ou em conluio, o que é mais apropriado] de uma Coroa ávida para receber dinheiro emprestado [a juros baixos, aka "easy money"] para pagar seus débitos [ou seja, A TODO CUSTO, sendo comum editos e mais editos para "consertar" a cagada na base da canetada e impedindo futuros credores de reaverem seu prometido dinheiro, salvando PRINCIPAL E SOMENTE, os big loosers].

LOGO NO PRIMEIRO CAPÍTULO, uma amostra de como funcionam bolhas [que possui como sugestivo nome "The Greater Fool Theory"]:

"This present volume contends, based upon historical experience, that speculative bubbles do occur and that these bubbles are precipitated by a large increase in the supply of money. This monetary intervention creates situations that manifest themselves in malinvestment, i.e., speculative bubbles. What then follows is the required period of readjustment, i.e., crash and depression.This sequence of events is similar to the Minsky/Kindleberger sequence of events that characterize stock market booms and busts, as outlined by Antoin Murphy

1. The market rise starts off because of some exogenous shock such as war, the end of a war, a technological or natural resource discovery, or “a debt conversion that precipitously lowers interest rates." The schick creates new opportunities profit, and a boom is engendered.

2.  The boom is nurtured by an expansion of bank credit which expand money supply. Alternatively, the velocity of circulation increases.

3. As increased demand pushes up the prices of goods and financial assets, new profit opportunities are found and confidence grows in the economy. Multuplier and accelerator effects interact and the economy enters into a "boom or euphoric state." At this point overtrading may take place.

 4. Overtrading may involve:

a.  Pure speculation, that is over-emphasis on the acquisition of assets for capital gain rather than income return; 

b.  Overestimation of prospective returns by companies; 

c.  Excessive gearing involving the imposition of low cash requirements on the acquisition of financial assets through buying on margin, by installment purchases, and so on.

5.  When the neophytes, attracted by the prospect of large capital gains for a small outlay, become numerous in the market, the activity assumes a separate abnormal momentum of its own. Insiders recognize the danger signals and move out of securities into money.

6.  A financial distress period sets in as the neophytes become aware that if there is a rush for liquidity prices will collapse. The race to move out of securities gathers pace.

7. Revulsion against securities develops as banks start calling in loans and selling collateral.

8.  Panic sets in as the market collapses and the question arises as to whether the government or Central Bank should come in and act a lender of last resort in what has been recently described as a "lifeboat operation." "

TULIPMANIA em detalhes [pdf]: http://www.math.mcmaster.ca/~grasselli/Garber89.pdf
[para mais exemplos no século XVII Europeu] http://www.princeton.edu/~ies/IES_Essays/E208.pdf